PAFI and non-publication of ONS PPI in December 2022

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will not be publishing PPI in December 2022.

ONS issued the following statement on 9th December 2022:

‘Last month we advised users of a weighting error for diesel fuel within the ONS Producer Price Indices (PPI). While most tables were updated correctly, some indices in datasets 2 (MM22) and 8 (PPI reference table) were not but have now been updated today. Subsequent quality assurance checks have identified a further issue with some detailed item prices feeding into incorrect groups within the food section of the PPI basket. As a result, the ONS will not be publishing next week’s PPI bulletin and data for November 2022, while further investigations are undertaken. While this is being completed, we advise caution using the PPI datasets which may be subject to revision. We will keep users updated on our progress and will provide a further update in January 2023. We apologise for any inconvenience caused.’ 

In order to facilitate the application of the Price Adjustment Formulae Indices (PAFI) in formulae fluctuations contracts, the BCIS and the Indices Working Group have agreed to issue the ‘Provisional’ figures for the latest month, based on a standard estimate of the November PPI.

Where BCIS use PPIs as inputs into PAFI, the PPI Indices for November will be estimated by applying the annual percentage change between October 2021 and 2022 to the November 2021 figure. Where this results in a change of more than +/- 2% on the month it has been capped at +/- 2%.

When ONS resumes issuing PPI in 2023 they will issue figures for all unpublished periods so there will be no gaps in the series and these figures will be used when the Firm figures are issued.

Inputs to the PAFI from other sources will be updated in the normal manner.