Published: 31/10/2023
BCIS launched the Scottish Tender Price Assessment Panel in October 2023.
Tender Price Inflation is intended to measure the trend of contractors’ pricing levels in accepted tenders, i.e. cost to client.
It is based on a Delphi survey.
Application and relevance
The percentages are intended to reflect the scope of the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index, which is based on project indices generally single stage, traditional procurement, average value < £5million, (minimum £100,000, no maximum). Excludes M+E and other specialist trades, e.g. facades. We have assumed this also reflects market projects let on single stage Design and Build and Specification and Drawings.
Publication
The panel will be convened quarterly.
The agreed percentage change on the quarter and a report on the survey and discussions will be published.
The result is a percentage change in the quarter.
It will not be published as a separate series.
Revision policy
The percentage will not normally be revised, unless advised by the panel.
Applicable dates
The questionnaire asks for increases mid-quarter to mid-quarter:
Quarter 1: Change mid-November to mid-February
Quarter 2: Change mid-February to mid-May
Quarter 3: Change mid-May to mid-August
Quarter 4: Change mid-August to mid-November
Range
The first panel was convened in October 2023.
Calculation method
The Delphi method is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds to arrive at a consensus.
BCIS has recruited a panel of practising cost consultants from firms involved in multiple tenders in each quarter.
A questionnaire asking for the individual panel members experience in a last quarter is completed. The questionnaire also requests contextual details for the responses, i.e. location, size, procurement routes, sectors. The results are analysed and reported to the panel for discussion. A consensus increase is agreed following the discussion.
The result is a percentage change in the quarter.
Base
The result of each panel discussion will be a percentage change (current quarter on previous quarter).
Further information
Enquiries about the Scottish Tender Price Assessment Panel should be addressed to BCIS.
Telephone: +44 (0)330 341 1000
Email: contactbcis@bcis.co.uk
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