BCIS tender price index – estimate of tender price inflation

Tender price index, estimate of tender price inflation, 4Q2025

Tender prices increased by an estimated average of 0.7% between 3Q2025 and 4Q2025, resulting in annual growth of 2.5% in the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index (TPI)⁽¹⁾.

The estimate is the consensus of the BCIS TPI Panel at the mid-point of the quarter (2), based on analysed Delphi survey results, and does not necessarily represent the views of individual participants.

Through their survey responses and in discussion, panellists pointed to various pertinent factors in the industry and wider financial climate impacting on tender pricing.

Appetite to tender 

According to the panel, demand for new work is strong with contractors eager for secure, well-funded projects.

71% of survey respondents found contractors ‘quite eager’ to tender in 4Q2025 while just over one-fifth found the desired number of suitable tenderers after searching – an increase on both counts on 3Q2025. A further 7% found contractors less eager to tender.

Project pipeline

According to the panel, delayed decision-making ahead of the Autumn Budget had put more projects on hold.

29% of respondents said their anticipated pipeline of projects going to tender in the next 12 months had increased slightly in 4Q2025, with a further 14% reporting a significant increase.

43% said there had been no change while 14% said their anticipated pipeline had reduced slightly.

Commenting further, panellists shared concerns over contractor order books for the next 12 months. More enquiries are coming in for consultants, some for work as far as 18 months down the line, but this could mean contractors will not see these projects for some time.

Industry challenges

The elevated cost of construction, delays linked to local government non-mandatory spending plans and skilled labour shortages – particularly among white-collar workers – were all identified as key industry challenges by the panel.

Shrinking workloads and rising payroll costs were said to have reduced staffing numbers and it’s common for businesses not to replace voluntary leavers.

Insolvencies are still an issue and in the particular case of M&E subcontractors, pose significant risks to project delivery and cost instability. Panellists added that high demand in M&E-intensive sectors such as data centres and life sciences compound this risk and could create cost pressures in other areas of the construction market.

However, it was noted that insolvencies do not automatically lead to a loss of talent as people move within the industry.

Elsewhere, the panel observed an industry trend of blaming geopolitical disruption and fiscal events like the Autumn Budget for creating uncertainty. This in itself can create more uncertainty.

Looking ahead, the panel said the outlook for 2026 is relatively positive, although concerns remain over the private sector market and project viability.

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Panel members

The current BCIS TPI Panel members are:

• Alexander Bill, Gleeds
• David Hughes, Calfordseaden
• David Thornley, exigere
• Don Patterson, Equals Consulting
• Gavin Murgatroyd, Gardiner & Theobald
• Ian Goodridge, Arcadis
• James Garner, Gleeds
• MACE
• Mark Lacey, Turner & Townsend alinea
• Max Wilkes, AtkinsRealis
• Nigel Hawes, exigere
• Nitesh Patel, Turner & Townsend
• Peter Maguire, WT Partnership
• Pablo Cristi Worm, AECOM
• Rachel Coleman, Turner & Townsend alinea
• Richard Hill, Currie & Brown
• Robert Ray, Frankham Consultancy Group
• Roger Hogg, Rider Levett Bucknall
• Simon Cash, Artelia UK
• Simon Rawlinson, Arcadis
• Steve Waltho, Turner & Townsend
• Stuart Wigley, Baily Garner LLP

Notes

⁽¹⁾ The BCIS TPI Panel estimate has been applied to the previous quarter index and rounded to the nearest whole number for publication.

⁽²⁾ BCIS has recruited a panel of practising cost consultants from firms involved in multiple tenders to, in each quarter, provide an early estimate of tender price movement in the latest quarter based on a panel (Delphi) survey approach. For further details see: BCIS Tender Price Index Panel.

Basis of the All-in BCIS Tender Price Index

TPI figures prior to 4th quarter 2018 are based on project indices, generally single stage, traditional procurement, average value < £5million, (minimum £100,000, no maximum).

Excludes M+E and other specialist trades, e.g. facades. BCIS has assumed this reflects market projects let on single-stage Design and Build and Specification and Drawings.

Indices are normalised for location, size and procurement. Percentage changes are mid-quarter to mid-quarter.