BCIS tender price index – estimate of tender price inflation

Tender price index, estimate of tender price inflation, 3Q2025

Tender prices increased by an estimated average of 0.7% between 2Q2025 and 3Q2025, resulting in annual growth of 2.5% in the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index (TPI)¹.

The estimate is the consensus of the BCIS TPI Panel at the mid-point of the quarter², based on analysed Delphi survey results, and does not necessarily represent the views of individual participants.

Through their survey responses and in discussion, panellists pointed to various pertinent factors in the industry and wider financial climate impacting on tender pricing.

Appetite to tender 

More than half of panellists (54%) reported that contractors were quite eager to tender, a slight reduction from the 64% reporting the same in 2Q2025. Almost one-third (31%) said contractors were less eager, while 15% found their desired number of tenderers after searching. None reported contractors as either unwilling to tender or as very eager.

Logistical challenges

Panellists reported that the market is being shaped by rising staff costs, with labour pressures driven by higher National Insurance contributions, the National Minimum Wage, and shortages of appropriately skilled workers. Client caution is evident in the large commercial sector, where funding is often committed stage by stage, creating uncertainty, while the Building Safety Act has shifted risk milestones to Gateway 2, increasing ‘at risk’ funding. Key challenges cited include elevated construction costs, regulation and planning processes, grid connection and compliance with new requirements such as biodiversity net gain and net zero standards.

Project pipeline

With a more positive outlook than in the previous quarter, more than half of panellists (54%) said their pipeline of projects going to tender over the next 12 months had increased slightly in 3Q2025, with a further 8% reporting a significant increase. Just under one-quarter (23%) said their pipeline was unchanged, while 15% reported a slight reduction.

The next update to the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index is due to be published on 5 December 2025.

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Panel members

The current BCIS TPI Panel members are:

• Alexander Bill, Gleeds
• Don Patterson, Equals Consulting
• Gavin Murgatroyd, Gardiner & Theobald
• James Garner, Gleeds
• David Happell, Exigere
• Pablo Cristi Worm, AECOM
• MACE
• Mark Lacey, Alinea
• Max Wilkes, AtkinsRéalis
• Nigel Hawes, Exigere
• Nitesh Patel, Turner & Townsend
• Peter Maguire, WT Partnership
• Rachel Coleman, Alinea
• Richard Hill, Currie and Brown
• Robert Ray, Frankham Consultancy Group
• Roger Hogg, Rider Levett Bucknall
• Simon Cash, Artelia
• Simon Rawlinson, Arcadis
• Steve Waltho, Turner & Townsend
• Stuart Wigley, Baily Garner

Notes

¹ The BCIS TPI Panel estimate has been applied to the previous quarter index and rounded to the nearest whole number for publication.

² BCIS has recruited a panel of practising cost consultants from firms involved in multiple tenders to, in each quarter, provide an early estimate of tender price movement in the latest quarter based on a panel (Delphi) survey approach. For further details see: BCIS Tender Price Index Panel.

Basis of the All-in BCIS Tender Price Index

TPI figures prior to 4th quarter 2018 are based on project indices, generally single stage, traditional procurement, average value < £5million, (minimum £100,000, no maximum).

Excludes M+E and other specialist trades, e.g. facades. BCIS has assumed this reflects market projects let on single-stage Design and Build and Specification and Drawings.

Indices are normalised for location, size and procurement. Percentage changes are mid-quarter to mid-quarter.