Movement in tender prices in Scotland 

The BCIS Scottish Tender Price Assessment (TPA) Panel comprises cost consultants from firms involved in multiple construction tenders across Scotland and helps track pricing trends in accepted tenders. It reports on quarterly and annual movements in tender prices and provides insight into the conditions influencing pricing levels on construction projects across Scotland.

Commentary in 2Q2026 was collected through a Delphi survey and joint meeting with the BCIS Scottish Contractors Panel.

Scottish tender prices maintain steady growth amid supply chain pressures

Building tender prices in Scotland increased by an average of 1% in 2Q2026 compared with the previous quarter and by 3.5% year-on-year, according to the BCIS Scottish TPA Panel.

Almost two-thirds of panellists reported securing the desired number of suitable tenderers in the second quarter of 2026, while more than one-third said contractors were quite eager to tender – an increase on the previous quarter.

Panel commentary suggested that two-stage tendering remains the preferred procurement route, although tier one contractors are becoming increasingly selective about the projects they pursue, with decisions influenced by risk profile, procurement route and sector experience.

Smaller projects are reportedly experiencing stronger bidding competition, while larger schemes are more likely to attract interest where collaborative procurement methods, including early contractor engagement and two-stage design and build routes, are adopted.

Broader commentary indicated that ongoing uncertainty is making fixed-price contracts more difficult to secure.

The impact of conflict in the Middle East is reportedly starting to affect product availability and pricing too.

Panellists highlighted rising costs for steel, aluminium, reinforcing bars, cladding and cement as examples. In relation to steel, the panel noted that the higher import tariff due to be introduced by the UK government in July is expected to place further upward pressure on prices.

The panel also raised concerns over increasing insurance costs across the supply chain, driven by lengthening supply routes and greater global risk aversion, alongside the disproportionate impact of higher fuel costs on projects in remote areas of Scotland.

Differential price movement between the Scottish Highlands and islands and the rest of Scotland is reportedly widening due to labour shortages, particularly among MEP, civil engineering and groundworks specialists. Geopolitical tensions are expected to exacerbate these differences.

Looking ahead, 63% of panellists expect their pipeline of projects going to tender over the next 12 months to remain unchanged compared with the previous year. One-quarter expect activity to increase slightly, down from one-third in 1Q2026.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘The Scottish construction market still appears relatively stable with contractors willing to pursue opportunities. However, there is clearly growing caution around pricing certainty and supply chain resilience.

‘What is particularly notable is the extent to which global events are now directly shaping local project delivery. Geopolitical instability is impacting material prices and availability, insurance and logistics, all of which seem to be having a more pronounced impact on regions that already face labour constraints.

‘At the same time, procurement strategy is becoming increasingly important. In an uncertain environment, it’s likely that we’ll continue to see more selectivity from contractors where feasible as they look to mitigate risk.

‘That said, there are still opportunities for well-structured projects that demonstrate clear procurement strategies and realistic risk allocation. Much will depend on how inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty evolve over the second half of the year, but for now the market appears to be balancing caution with a continued willingness to engage.’

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Panel members:

• Dean Carrick, Atkins Realis
• Gordon Ritchie, Gardiner & Theobald
• Iain McLean, Doig + Smith
• Ross Lovatt, Thomson Gray
• Jamie MacDonald, AECOM
• John McGuire, Egis
• Jordan Smith, Egis
• Lynsay Turnbull, Egis
• Simon Brooke, Currie Brown
• Suzanne Graham, Turner & Townsend

BCIS Scottish Tender Price Assessment panel – methodology.