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Published: 26/09/2024
BCIS produces five-year construction industry forecasts, covering projected input costs, tender prices and output, and examining the latest construction market trends.
The quarterly BCIS infrastructure briefing is a civil engineering market report and presents our view of water and sewerage, electricity, roads, railways, harbours and flood defences, gas, air and communications, and infrastructure repair and maintenance output against a backdrop of civil engineering costs, including labour and materials, and the wider economic background.
The full briefing is available to subscribers of BCIS CapX.
BCIS infrastructure forecast – 2Q2024 to 2Q2029
Civil engineering costs are forecast to rise by 15% over the next five years to 2Q2029, while civil engineering tender prices are predicted to increase by 23% over the same period, according to the latest forecast from BCIS.
New work infrastructure output is expected to decline by 3% in 2024, before recovering from 2025. Output in this sector is forecast to rise by 19% over the next five years, driven by strong growth in the electricity sub-sector.
Dr David Crosthwaite, Chief Economist at BCIS, said: ‘Although infrastructure output has historically remained relatively high, it has declined over the past year. We forecast that output growth will resume in the second half of this year and plateau through 2025, before showing marginal growth later in the forecast period.
‘Output will be driven by continued work in the energy sector and large-scale projects like HS2, Hinkley Point C, and offshore wind developments within the electricity sub-sector.
‘The government has made various announcements around its infrastructure plans, proposing a 10-year infrastructure strategy but, as with other sectors, much of the detail will not be clear until at least the Autumn Budget.
‘Investment is crucial for infrastructure so, while the government is at pains to describe the dire state it has inherited, it also needs to inspire confidence in the sector and encourage investors to come here. Hopefully that will be reflected in spending plans and policy moving forward.’
The full details of the forecast are available in the BCIS CapX.
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Quarterly updates to forecasts are published for infrastructure, building, and maintenance, cleaning and energy, while an annual update is published for the economic significance of maintenance.
