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Published: 19/03/2025
BCIS produces five-year construction industry forecasts, covering projected input costs, tender prices and output, and examining the latest construction market trends.
The quarterly BCIS infrastructure briefing is a civil engineering market report and presents our view of water and sewerage, electricity, roads, railways, harbours and flood defences, gas, air and communications, and infrastructure repair and maintenance output against a backdrop of civil engineering costs, including labour and materials, and the wider economic background.
The full briefing is available to subscribers of BCIS CapX.
BCIS infrastructure forecast – 4Q2024 to 4Q2029
Civil engineering costs are forecast to rise by 16% over the next five years to 4Q2029, with growth in labour costs the main driver, while civil engineering tender prices are predicted to increase by 22% over the same period, according to our latest forecast data.
Dr David Crosthwaite, Chief Economist at BCIS, said: ‘Infrastructure projects, by their nature, require long-term planning and delivery, meaning there are no quick fixes. However, greater clarity from the government could help to restore confidence. The Lower Thames Crossing, for instance, remains in limbo. Despite being a critical transport project, it has yet to receive final approval, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently saying it will need to be funded by private finance. But securing investment takes time, and no investor will commit without a definitive green light from the government.
‘If ministers are serious about revitalising infrastructure, decisive action is required. Without firm commitments and project approvals, the industry risks further stagnation at a time when clear direction is urgently needed.’
New work infrastructure output declined by 9.3% in 2024 but is set to return to growth from this year. Output in the sector is forecast to rise by 17% over the next five years.
Dr Crosthwaite added: ‘Future output levels will be bolstered by proposed new work in the energy and water sectors and continuing work on major projects such as HS2 and Hinkley Point C, along with offshore wind projects in the electricity sub-sector. In addition, the commitment to build the HS2 link between Old Oak Common and Euston is likely to boost output when construction starts in 2026.’
The full details of the forecast are available in BCIS CapX.
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Quarterly updates to forecasts are published for infrastructure, building, and maintenance, cleaning and energy, while an annual update is published for the economic significance of maintenance.
