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Published: 26/01/2026
BCIS produces five-year construction industry forecasts, covering projected input costs, tender prices and output, and examining the latest construction market trends.
The quarterly BCIS infrastructure briefing is a civil engineering market report and presents our view of water and sewerage, electricity, roads, railways, harbours and flood defences, gas, air and communications, and infrastructure repair and maintenance output against a backdrop of civil engineering costs, including labour and materials, and the wider economic background.
The full briefing is available to subscribers of BCIS CapX.
BCIS infrastructure forecast – 3Q2025 to 3Q2030
Civil engineering costs are forecast to rise by 16% over the next five years to 3Q2030, while tender prices for civil engineering work are expected to increase by 25% over the same period, according to BCIS’s latest infrastructure forecast.
Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Growth in civil engineering costs is primarily driven by labour costs, rather than materials cost inflation. Tender pricing continues to reflect both cost pressures and risk. While pipelines have improved marginally, uncertainty around funding and delivery remains a key factor influencing pricing behaviour.
‘Our Civil Engineering TPI panellists said that since the pandemic and Brexit, the supply chain has improved its risk management and planning processes, which has helped it to manage materials and plant shortages. Labour availability, however, represents a different issue, and securing workers can come down to the incentives offered.’
BCIS expects infrastructure output to be maintained at a relatively high level over the forecast period, although future output levels will depend on the availability of private finance for schemes such as the Lower Thames Crossing and the HS2 Old Oak Common to Euston link.
New infrastructure work output is forecast to grow by 16% between 2025 and 2030.
Dr Crosthwaite added: ‘After reaching historically high levels, infrastructure output has been declining since 2023. While activity remains below recent peaks, we expect growth to return this year and continue through the remainder of the forecast period, supported by energy, water and aviation projects, alongside major schemes such as HS2 and Hinkley Point C.’
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Quarterly updates to forecasts are published for infrastructure, building, and maintenance, cleaning and energy, while an annual update is published for the economic significance of maintenance.
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