Home » BCIS five-year forecast (building) – may 2022

BCIS five-year forecast (building) – may 2022

Published: 06/06/2022

Tender prices are forecast to rise just under 7% in the next year (to1Q2023) as rising costs put pressure on margins.

As cost pressures subside, tender prices are anticipated to rise by 3% over the following year, and then by around 4% per annum over the remainder of the forecast period, as demand increases.

Tender prices are expected to rise by 24% over the whole of the forecast period (1Q2022 to 1Q2027).

Materials prices are expected to rise by 15% over the forecast period (1Q2022 to 1Q2027). The main risks to materials prices will be disruption of world supply chains, and oil price rises, which will be exacerbated by the effects of the war in Ukraine.

There is currently a shortage of labour, which is affecting site rates. According to the Hays/BCIS Site Wage Cost Index, all-in site rates rose by 11% in the year to 1st quarter 2022, by comparison, promulgated national wage agreements, where they were awarded, in 2021 were in the order of 2.0% to 2.5%.

The BCIS General Building Cost Index is expected to rise by 17% over the forecast period (1Q2022 to 1Q2027).

New construction output is forecast to rise by 15% over the forecast period (2026 compared with 2021).

The full forecast and commentary are published in the Briefing section of the BCIS Online service.

 

Access BCIS Online

A tool designed for building professionals to help prepare top level cost plans, provide early cost advice to clients and benchmark costs for both commercial and residential buildings

Find out more