BCIS five-year forecast of facilities management costs

The latest BCIS forecast for the FM sector shows that Covid-19 pandemic and the implementation of the Brexit deal have been impacting on overall economic activity as well as maintenance activity and the war in Ukraine has led to a general uncertainty. This has resulted in pressures on costs, particularly energy and some materials costs. They will also have a significant impact on the availability of labour such as drivers, materials, and energy. It is assumed that these effects are expected to remain a few years and then resolve themselves, but they could be exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

Annual percentage change R&M output, maintenance, cleaning and energy costs (output is full year on full year, costs are 4Q on 4Q):

According to the latest BCIS Quarterly briefing: Maintenance, cleaning and energy¹, over the forecast period (4Q2021 to 4Q2026):

• Maintenance costs will rise 16.4%: annual inflation of 3.5% in the year to 4Q2022, falling slightly to 2.8% in the following year and settling at around 3% in each of the following three years, mainly reflecting wage rises.
• Cleaning costs will rise 24.4%: there will be demand pressures as workplaces are adapted to the post covid requirements and pressure on wages from the demand and the National Living Wage (NLW). Costs are expected to rise 6.5% and 5.5% in the first two years of the forecast slowing to around 3.5% per annum thereafter.
• Energy costs are currently very volatile and have been rising sharply, they are expected to rise by 33.1% over the forecast period, with large rises in oil and gas prices in the year to 4Q2022 followed by modest increases in 2023. Energy costs are predicted to decline over the rest of the period as the markets stabilise.
• R&M annual output is forecast to decline around 0.7% from 2021 to 2026. It is expected to rise around 4.2% between 2021 and 2022 as pent-up demand and alterations required by a new working environment push up demand. Output will slow over the rest of the forecast period. The recladding of flats following the Grenfell fire and work to reduce the carbon emissions from housing will be included in the R&M output figures; an allowance for this has been included in the forecast.

The forecast is based on information available up to 18 March 2022.

The full BCIS Quarterly briefing: Maintenance, cleaning and energy 2022 is published in the Briefing section, as part of the BCIS Building Running Costs online service.