Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland.

House price indices show continued growth

House prices grew in the year to May 2025, according to both Halifax and Nationwide’s indices.

Halifax⁽¹⁾ reported a 2.5% annual increase in house prices, while Nationwide’s index⁽²⁾ showed an increase of 3.5% on the same period.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Annual growth in house prices is positive, but they are not keeping up with the CPI which rose by 4% in the year to May 2025, so in real terms a fall in house prices is evident on an annual basis.

‘On the face of it this might be good news for potential buyers, but with Bank Rate unchanged, borrowing costs remain elevated. This will continue to impact both buyer demand and seller optimism.’

On a monthly basis, Halifax said prices fell by 0.4% on April 2025, while Nationwide’s index showed a 0.5% increase.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said the market appears largely stable and has seemingly absorbed the spring activity spike driven by stamp duty changes.

Reflecting on current conditions, she said: ‘Affordability remains a challenge, with house prices still high relative to incomes. However, lower mortgage rates and steady wage growth have helped support buyer confidence.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, said underlying conditions remain supportive for potential homebuyers as earnings rise and household balance sheets look strong ahead of an expected reduction in Bank Rate this year.

He said: ‘Official data confirmed that there was a significant jump in residential property transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional stamp duty costs. Owner occupier house purchase completions were around twice as high as usual and the highest since June 2021.

‘Nevertheless, mortgage approvals data suggests that market activity appears to be holding up well following the end of the stamp duty holiday.’

The UK HPI⁽³⁾, with the latest data for April 2025, showed a 3.5% increase in house prices compared with April 2024, with a 2.7% decrease on March 2025.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide shows Northern Ireland, the North West and West Midlands saw the greatest annual increases in 1Q2025. There was a 13.5% rise in house prices in Northern Ireland. London showed the lowest annual increase, with 1.9% growth in the same period.

^{Source: Nationwide}

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^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – May 2025  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth edged higher in May   - here}

^{(3) HM Land Registry – UK House Price Index summary: April 2025  - here}