Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland.

House price indices show continued strong growth

House prices increased in the year to March 2025, according to both Halifax and Nationwide’s indices.

Halifax⁽¹⁾ reported a 2.8% annual increase in house prices, while Nationwide’s index⁽²⁾ showed an increase of 3.9% on the same period.

Dr David Crosthwaite, Chief Economist at BCIS, said: ‘On an annual basis house prices continue their upward trend, although there are large regional differences. However, near-term price rises appear to be stabilising.

‘No doubt the recent increases were led by the stamp duty changes, so it will be interesting to see what happens later in the year as continued uncertainty is likely to lead to a subdued market going forward.’

On a monthly basis, Halifax said prices were down by 0.5% on February 2025, while Nationwide’s index showed no movement.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said demand is returning to normal after a rush at the beginning of the year to beat the March stamp duty deadline.

She said: ‘Looking ahead, potential buyers still face challenges from the new normal of higher borrowing costs, a limited supply of available properties to choose from, and an uncertain economic outlook.

‘However, with further base rate cuts anticipated alongside positive wage growth, mortgage affordability should continue to improve gradually, and therefore we still expect a modest rise in house prices this year.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, said he expects activity to pick up steadily as the summer progresses, ‘despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive’.

He said: ‘The unemployment rate is low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace in real terms (i.e. after accounting for inflation), household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little if Bank Rate is lowered further in the coming quarters as we and most other analysts expect.’

The UK HPI⁽³⁾, with the latest data for February 2025, showed a 5.4% increase in house prices compared with February 2024, with no monthly movement from January 2025. As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide shows Northern Ireland, the North West and West Midlands saw the greatest annual increases in 1Q2025. There was a 13.5% rise in house prices in Northern Ireland. London showed the lowest annual increase, with 1.9% growth in the same period.

^{Source: Nationwide}

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^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – March 2025  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth steady in March  - here}

^{(3) HM Land Registry – UK House Price Index for February 2025  - here}