Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland.

Annual house price growth remains steady in May

House prices increased in the year to May 2026, by 0.5% and 1.7% according to Halifax⁽¹⁾ and Nationwide’s⁽²⁾ indices.

On a monthly basis, Halifax reported a 0.1% decrease in house prices in May, while Nationwide reported a 0.6% decrease.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘Although annual house price growth has remained positive it’s below the level of wider inflation and the monthly declines reported by both Halifax and Nationwide suggest both buyers and sellers face a difficult environment.

‘With ongoing uncertainty around inflation, interest rates and wider economic conditions, borrowers and lenders clearly remain cautious. Regional variations also highlight that movement in the housing market is far from uniform across the UK.

‘Looking ahead, much will depend on the direction of inflation, interest rates and the performance of the wider economy. A more favourable borrowing environment would support greater market activity, but for now the data suggest a housing market that is stalling rather than expanding.’

According to the Financial Conduct Authority, which collects mortgage lending data via the Mortgage Lending and Administration Return⁽³⁾, the value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) increased by 11.5% in 1Q2026 from the previous quarter to £78.0 billion and was 14.2% higher than a year earlier, reversing the 11.9% quarterly decline recorded in 4Q2025, which had been the largest fall since 3Q2023.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said property price trends continue to reflect the uncertainty linked to developments in the Middle East.

She said: ‘Despite recent cuts to mortgage rates, higher inflation expectations have kept borrowing costs above the level seen at the start of the year, continuing to stretch affordability for many buyers and temper demand.

‘Even so, overall activity has held up well, reflecting the underlying resilience of the UK housing market. Latest industry figures show transaction levels remain relatively stable, suggesting buyers and sellers are still moving.’

She also noted that annual growth is more subdued among first-time buyers, though she said there has been more flexibility affordability checks and a growing range of low-deposit options from lenders.

She said: ‘Looking ahead, borrowing costs and consumer confidence are likely to continue shaping activity in the coming months, with house prices expected to remain broadly stable while interest rates stay elevated. The housing market remains closely tied to wider global developments, with a return to sustained house price growth dependent on an improvement in the inflation outlook and a fall in mortgage costs.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, also noted the impact of conflict in the Middle East on a ‘loss of momentum’, though remained optimistic about the long-term effects.

He said: ‘While market interest rates have risen in recent months, the impact on affordability has so far been modest. Indeed, swap rates, which underpin fixed rate mortgage pricing, remain well below the highs reached in 2023 and are broadly in line with levels prevailing in 2024, implying only a partial reversal of earlier gains.

‘This provides some confidence that, if the latest shock passes relatively quickly, and energy prices normalise in the quarters ahead, any near-term softening in the housing market will also prove short lived.’

The UK HPI⁽⁴⁾, with the latest data for March 2026, showed no change in house prices compared with March 2025 and a 0.4% decrease on February 2026.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed in months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide show Northern Ireland and the North West saw the greatest annual house price increases in 1Q2026, by 9.5% and 3.3% respectively.

East Anglia and the Outer South East were the only regions to experience a decrease on an annual basis, of 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.

In 1Q2026, the UK as a whole saw annual house price growth of 1.5% on the same quarter in 2025.

^{Source: Nationwide – Quarterly Regional House Price Statistics – Q1 2026}

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^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – May 2026  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth slows in May  - here}

^{(3) FCA – Mortgage lending statistics – June 2026 - here}

^{(4) GOV.UK – House Price Index for March 2026 - here}