Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland.

House price indices show continued growth

House prices grew in the year to June 2025, according to both Halifax and Nationwide’s indices.

Halifax⁽¹⁾ reported a 2.5% annual increase in house prices, while Nationwide’s index⁽²⁾ showed an increase of 2.1% on the same period.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘While positive, annual growth in house prices continues to fall behind wider economy inflation (the CPI rose by 3.6% in June 2025). Affordability is an ongoing issue with borrowing costs remaining elevated compared to the recent past which may delay decisions made by potential buyers. Post-stamp duty changes, the housing market seems to have run out of steam.’

On a monthly basis, Halifax said prices saw no change on May 2025, while Nationwide’s index showed a 0.8% decrease.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said the market remains resilient with mortgage approvals and property transactions picking up after a brief slowdown in the wake of stamp duty changes in spring.

Reflecting on the challenges ahead, she added: ‘Affordability is still stretched, particularly for those coming to the end of fixed-rate deals. The economic backdrop also remains uncertain; while inflation has eased, it’s still above target, and there are signs the jobs market may be softening.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, warned that a softening price growth could reflect weaker demand but said an uptick in activity was still expected in the months to come.

He said: ‘The unemployment rate remains low, earnings are rising at a healthy pace in real terms (i.e. after accounting for inflation), household balance sheets are strong and borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little if Bank Rate is lowered further in the coming quarters as we and most other analysts expect.’

The UK HPI⁽³⁾, with the latest data for May 2025, showed a 3.9% increase in house prices compared with May 2024, with a 1.1% increase on April 2025.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed in months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide shows Northern Ireland, the North and Scotland saw the greatest annual increases in 2Q2025. There was a 9.7% rise in house prices in Northern Ireland, down from 13.5% in 1Q2025. East Anglia showed the lowest annual increase, with 1.1% growth in the same period.

^{Source: Nationwide}

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^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – June 2025  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth softens in June   - here}

^{(3) HM Land Registry – UK House Price Index for May 2025  - here}