Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Lloyds, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Lloyds and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK House Price Index (HPI) is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland.

The Halifax House Price Index was renamed the Lloyds House Price Index in July 2026. The methodology is unchanged and the index is already based on both Halifax and Lloyds mortgage data.

House price growth maintains slower pace in July

Growth in house prices slowed in July 2026, to 0.1% and 1.8% year-on-year, according to Lloyds⁽¹⁾ and Nationwide’s⁽²⁾ indices respectively. On the month, growth remained broadly flat, with Lloyds reporting no change and Nationwide reporting just 0.1% growth.

This comes against a backdrop of low mortgage approvals, signalling weaker demand.

While net mortgage approvals edged up to 58,200 in June⁽³⁾, an increase of 2.8% on the previous month, they remained below the average of around 61,400 recorded over the previous six months.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘The latest house price data point to a market that remains resilient but subdued, as persistent headwinds continue to constrain activity. Elevated interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty are limiting upward momentum.

‘Affordability remains the primary constraint, with a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs continuing to suppress demand. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and domestic political uncertainty are weighing on consumer and business confidence, reinforcing a cautious outlook for the housing market.’

According to the Financial Conduct Authority⁽⁴⁾, which collects mortgage lending data via the Mortgage Lending and Administration Return, the value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) increased by 11.5% in 1Q2026 from the previous quarter to £78.0 billion and was 14.2% higher than a year earlier, reversing the 11.9% quarterly decline recorded in 4Q2025, which had been the largest fall since 3Q2023.

However, this data pre-date the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated increase in economic uncertainty. As a result, mortgage lending data points are likely to soften over the coming quarters as households adopt a more cautious approach to borrowing and housing transactions.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Lloyds, said average house prices have remained relatively stable for almost two years, moving within a narrow range over that period despite uncertainty this year.

‘Affordability remains a challenge for many would-be buyers and, following recent events in the Middle East, mortgage rates have edged higher again after easing earlier in the summer,’ she said.

‘Looking ahead, we expect market activity and house prices to remain relatively stable over the remainder of the year. Developments will be shaped by both how mortgage rates respond to the outlook for inflation and wider household confidence.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, concurred that soft market activity and house prices partially reflected the uncertain economic backdrop.

‘Geopolitical tensions remain high, with the conflict between Iran and the US again exerting upward pressure on energy prices and market interest rates in recent weeks. Financial market expectations for the future path of Bank Rate have been volatile, reflecting shifting views about the inflationary implications of events at home and abroad,’ he added.

The UK HPI⁽⁵⁾, with the latest data for May 2026, showed a 2.7% increase in house prices compared with May 2025 and a 0.3% increase on April 2026.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed in months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Lloyds (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide show Northern Ireland, the North West and the North recorded the greatest annual house price increases in 2Q2026. Northern Irish house prices rose by 8.6% while prices in the North West and the North both increased by 3.9%.

In 2Q2026, the UK as a whole saw annual house price growth of 2.2% on the same quarter in 2025.

^{Source: Nationwide – Quarterly Regional House Price Statistics – Q2 2026}

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^{(1) Lloyds – House Price Index – July 2026  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – House price growth remained subdued in July  - here}

^{(3) FCA – Mortgage lending statistics – June 2026 - here}

^{(4) GOV.UK – House Price Index for May 2026 - here}