Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland.

House price indices show continued strong growth

House prices increased in the year to April 2025, according to both Halifax and Nationwide’s indices.

Halifax⁽¹⁾ reported a 3.2% annual increase in house prices, while Nationwide’s index⁽²⁾ showed an increase of 3.4% on the same period.

Dr David Crosthwaite, Chief Economist at BCIS, said: ‘House prices appear to be falling on a monthly basis as the impact of the stamp duty change unwinds.

‘This was to be expected as demand was always likely to be affected by changes to the tax regime. Given the latest inflation data, it appears that house price growth is no longer keeping up with the CPI, which could impact affordability going forward.’

On a monthly basis, Halifax said prices were up by 0.3% on March 2025, while Nationwide’s index showed a 0.6% reduction.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said that stamp duty changes prompted a surge in transactions in the early part of 2025 as buyers rushed to beat the tax-rise deadline.

She said, however, ‘this didn’t lead to a significant increase in property prices, with the last six months characterised by a stability in prices rarely seen since the pandemic. While the market has cooled slightly since this rush, buyer activity remains strong in comparison to recent years.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, said that early indications suggest a significant jump in transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional tax obligations.

He said: ‘The market is likely to remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays. Nevertheless, activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive.’

The UK HPI⁽³⁾, with the latest data for March 2025, showed a 6.4% increase in house prices compared with March 2024, with a 1.1% increase on February 2025. As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide shows Northern Ireland, the North West and West Midlands saw the greatest annual increases in 1Q2025. There was a 13.5% rise in house prices in Northern Ireland. London showed the lowest annual increase, with 1.9% growth in the same period.

^{Source: Nationwide}

To keep up to date with the latest industry news and insights from BCIS, register for our newsletter here.

^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – April 2025  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth slows slightly in April   - here}

^{(3) HM Land Registry – UK House Price Index summary: March 2025   - here}