Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Halifax, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Halifax and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK HPI is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, ONS and Registers of Scotland.

Annual house price growth slows near year’s end

House prices rose in the year to November 2025, according to Halifax⁽¹⁾ and Nationwide’s⁽²⁾ indices.

Halifax reported a 0.7% annual increase in house prices, while Nationwide’s index showed an increase of 1.8% in the same period.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘House price growth is slowing but has remained stable despite Budget uncertainty. Consumer inflation has also eased to 3.2%, which, coupled with the fall in Bank Rate, will hopefully support buyer demand.’

On a monthly basis, Halifax reported no price growth in November 2025 while Nationwide reported movement of 0.3%.

According to the latest insight from the Financial Conduct Authority, which collects mortgage lending data via the Mortgage Lending and Administration Return⁽³⁾, the value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) increased by 1.6% in 3Q2025 from the previous quarter – the highest since 3Q2022 and 20.3% higher than one year earlier.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said average house prices were broadly unchanged in November with annual growth slowing to the weakest rate since March 2024.

She said: ‘This consistency in average prices reflects what has been one of the most stable years for the housing market over the last decade. Even with the changes to Stamp Duty back in spring and some uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget, property values have remained steady.

‘Looking ahead, with market activity steady and expectations of further interest rate reductions to come, we anticipate property prices will continue to grow gradually into 2026.’

Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Robert Gardner, reflected this sentiment, underlining the market’s resilience against subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labour market.

He added: ‘The changes to property taxes announced in the Budget are unlikely to have a significant impact on the housing market. The high value council tax surcharge, which is not being introduced until April 2028, will apply to less than 1% of properties in England and around 3% in London.

‘Looking forward, housing affordability is likely to improve modestly if income growth continues to outpace house price growth as we expect. Borrowing costs are also likely to moderate a little further if Bank Rate is lowered again in the coming quarters.’

The UK HPI⁽⁴⁾, with the latest data for October 2025, showed a 1.7% increase in house prices compared with October 2024, with a 0.1% decrease on September 2025.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed in months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Halifax (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)}

The latest regional data from Nationwide shows Northern Ireland and the North again saw the greatest annual increases in 3Q2025.

There was a 9.6% rise in house prices in Northern Ireland while growth in the Outer South East region slowed to 0.3%.

^{Source: Nationwide}

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^{(1) Halifax – House Price Index – November 2025  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth slows in November  - here}

^{(3) FCA – Commentary on Mortgage lending statistics Q3 2025 - here}

^{(4) GOV.UK – UK House Price Index for October 2025 - here}