Analysis of movement in house price indices

Each month, Lloyds, Nationwide and HM Land Registry publish house price indices, tracking the movement in average house prices in the UK. Lloyds and Nationwide updates are based on mortgage approvals data, while the UK House Price Index (HPI) is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, the Office for National Statistics and Registers of Scotland.

The Halifax House Price Index was renamed the Lloyds House Price Index in July 2026. The methodology is unchanged and the index is already based on both Halifax and Lloyds mortgage data. Lloyds and Nationwide use their own mortgage approvals data. The UK HPI uses completed sales, including cash purchases. All national data used below are seasonally adjusted. Nationwide’s regional figures compare average prices with the same quarter a year earlier.

House prices stagnate as economic backdrop tests market

UK house prices stagnated in October, with the latest indices reflecting a challenging economic backdrop. Lloyds⁽¹⁾ reported a 1.2% fall in house prices in the year to October 2026 and a 0.6% decline between September and October. Meanwhile, Nationwide’s index⁽²⁾ recorded annual growth of 0.5% but reported no growth on the month.

The figures arrived as Bank of England data revealed net mortgage approvals for house purchases decreased to 53,400 in September 2026, below an average of around 58,800 over the previous six months⁽³⁾.

Earlier data from the Financial Conduct Authority⁽⁴⁾, which collects mortgage lending data via the Mortgage Lending and Administration Return, revealed that the value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) increased by 1.4% in 2Q2026 from the previous quarter to £79.2 billion and was 1.3% higher than a year earlier.

Dr David Crosthwaite, chief economist at BCIS, said: ‘The latest data suggest affordability continues to weigh on the housing market. While stronger wage growth offers some grounds for optimism, any recovery is likely to be gradual, with the ongoing Middle East conflict adding to uncertainty and the government’s first-time buyer scheme not due to take effect until April 2027.’

Andrew Asaam, mortgages director at Lloyds, said renewed inflationary pressures are keeping borrowing costs high and adding to the squeeze on household finances.

He said: ‘House prices have changed relatively little over the past couple of years, as the market has gradually adjusted to higher interest rates. The recent rise in energy and other household costs has added to the pressure on buyers, so some adjustment in prices is not surprising.

‘Looking ahead, conditions are likely to remain subdued in the near term, but we don’t expect this to lead to a sustained period of falling house prices. With wages continuing to rise faster than property prices, the gap between earnings and house prices should gradually narrow, helping affordability to improve over time.’

Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, suggested forward-looking indicators point to further softness in the near term with surveyors reporting weaker new buyer enquiries. However, he remained optimistic about market improvements in the coming months.

‘Once the energy shock fades, there are good reasons to believe the market will regain momentum,’ he said. ‘The broader economy has proven surprisingly resilient to date, with annual economic growth accelerating in recent quarters. Employment is holding up well, as are real incomes, while household balance sheets are solid, with debt levels still close to 20-year lows relative to household disposable income.’

The UK HPI⁽⁵⁾, with the latest seasonally adjusted data for August 2026, showed a 0.3% increase on house prices in July 2026 and a 0.9% rise on prices in August 2025.

As the UK HPI figures cover house sales that may have been agreed in months previously, there tends to be a lag in the data.

^{Source: Lloyds (Methodology), Nationwide (Methodology), UK HPI (Methodology)} 

The latest regional data from Nationwide show Northern Ireland, the North West, Scotland and the North recorded the greatest annual house price growth in 3Q2026.

Northern Irish house prices rose by 5.9% and prices in the North West rose by 3.9%, while Scotland and the North both saw growth of 3.3%.

In 3Q2026, the UK as a whole saw annual house price growth of 1.2% on the same quarter in 2025.

^{Source: Nationwide – Quarterly Regional House Price Statistics – Q3 2026}

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^{(1) Lloyds – House Price Index – October 2026  - here}

^{(2) Nationwide – Annual house price growth slows again in October  - here}

^{(3) Bank of England – Money and Credit – September 2026 - here}

^{(4) FCA – Mortgage lending statistics – September 2026 - here}

^{(5) GOV.UK – UK House Price Index - here}