Home » Estimate of tender price inflation – 4Q2022

4Q2022 estimate of tender price inflation

Published: 12/12/2022

The early estimate for the BCIS All-in Tender Price Index (TPI) shows a 1.2% increase between 3Q2022 and 4Q2022.

The resultant 4Q2022 TPI figure shows an increase of 7.6% in the year from 4Q2021¹.

The estimate is the consensus of the BCIS TPI Panel² based on the analysed Delphi survey results, it does not necessarily represent the views of individual participants.

The range of responses on the tender price movement question continues to narrow, with responses ranging between 0.5% and 2%. The average stood at 1.2% and all panellists agreed on it as a consensus figure for 4Q2022.

The panel reported Overheads and Profit at 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% last quarter.

BCIS TPI panel continues monitoring the appetite to tender. Between 3Q2021 and 2Q2022, more panellists reported challenges in attracting contractors to tender as contractors were quite selective. The dynamics start changing from 3Q2022, with more panellists reporting contractors eager to tender, driven by the awareness of the slowing market.


Appetite to Tender

Source: BCIS TPI Panel

The panel expects fewer tendering opportunities next year and it is likely that the rising cost of materials will be absorbed within the supply chain. Labour is expected to be the main issue going forward, driving construction inflation.

¹ Note: the BCIS TPI Panel estimate has been applied to the previous quarter index and rounded to the nearest whole number for publication.

² The BCIS TPI Panel. BCIS has recruited a panel of practising cost consultants from firms involved in multiple tenders in each quarter to provide an early estimate of tender price movement in the latest quarter based on a panel (Delphi) survey approach. For further details see: BCIS Tender Price Index Panel.

Basis of BCIS Tender Price Index. TPI figures prior to 4th quarter 2018 are based on project indices, generally single stage, traditional procurement, average value < £5million, (minimum £100,000, no maximum). Excludes M+E and other specialist trades, e.g. facades. BCIS has assumed this reflects market projects let on single stage Design and Build and Specification and Drawings. Indices are normalised for location, size and procurement. Percentage changes are mid-quarter to mid-quarter.

The BCIS TPI is published in the BCIS Online service and BCIS Review Online service.

The current BCIS TPI Panel members are:

  • Adam Reeve, Calfordseaden
  • David Happell, Exigere
  • Don Patterson, Equals Consulting
  • Gavin Margatroyd, Gardiner & Theobald
  • Ian Aldous, Mace Group
  • James Garner, Gleeds
  • Kristoffer Hudson, Turner & Townsend
  • Mark Lacey, Alinea
  • Max Wilkes, F+G
  • Michael Urie, Gardiner & Theobald
  • Nicola Sharkey, Gleeds
  • Nigel Hawes, Exigere
  • Peter Maguire, WT Partnership
  • Rachel Coleman, Alinea
  • Richard Hill, Currie and Brown
  • Roger Hogg, Rider Levett Bucknall
  • Simon Cash, Artelia
  • Simon Rawlinson, Arcadis
  • Steve Waltho, Turner & Townsend
  • Stuart Wigley, Baily Garner

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